Predicting the behavior of complex systems in engineering often involves significant uncertainty about operating conditions, such as external loads, environmental effects, and manufacturing variability. As a result, uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become a critical tool in modeling-based engineering, providing methods to identify, characterize, and propagate uncertainty through computational models. However, the stochastic nature of UQ typically requires numerous evaluations of these models, which can be computationally expensive and limit the scope of feasible analyses. To address this, surrogate models, i.e., efficient functional approximations trained on a limited set of simulations, have become central in modern UQ practice. This book chapter presents a concise review of surrogate modeling techniques for UQ, with a focus on the particularly challenging task of capturing the full time-dependent response of dynamical systems. It introduces a classification of time-dependent problems based on the complexity of input excitation and discusses corresponding surrogate approaches, including combinations of principal component analysis with polynomial chaos expansions, time warping techniques, and nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs (NARX models). Each method is illustrated with simple application examples to clarify the underlying ideas and practical use.

The integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems into greenhouses not only optimizes land use but also enhances sustainable agricultural practices by enabling dual benefits of food production and renewable energy generation. However, accurate prediction of internal environmental conditions is crucial to ensure optimal crop growth while maximizing energy production. This study introduces a novel application of Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) to greenhouse microclimate modeling, comparing their performance with traditional Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While RNNs excel at temporal pattern recognition, they cannot explicitly model the directional relationships between environmental variables. Our STGNN approach addresses this limitation by representing these relationships as directed graphs, enabling the model to capture both environmental dependencies and their directionality. Using high-frequency data collected at 15-minute intervals from a greenhouse in Volos, Greece, we demonstrate that RNNs achieve exceptional accuracy in winter conditions ($R^2 = 0.985$) but show limitations during summer cooling system operation. Though STGNNs currently show lower performance (winter $R^2 = 0.947$), their architecture offers greater potential for integrating additional variables such as PV generation and crop growth indicators.

As robots are expected to get more involved in people's everyday lives, frameworks that enable intuitive user interfaces are in demand. Hand gesture recognition systems provide a natural way of communication and, thus, are an integral part of seamless Human-Robot Interaction (HRI). Recent years have witnessed an immense evolution of computational models powered by deep learning. However, state-of-the-art models fall short in expanding across different gesture domains, such as emblems and co-speech. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid hand gesture recognition system. Our architecture enables learning both static and dynamic gestures: by capturing a so-called "snapshot" of the gesture performance at its peak, we integrate the hand pose along with the dynamic movement. Moreover, we present a method for analyzing the motion profile of a gesture to uncover its dynamic characteristics and which allows regulating a static channel based on the amount of motion. Our evaluation demonstrates the superiority of our approach on two gesture benchmarks compared to a CNNLSTM baseline. We also provide an analysis on a gesture class basis that unveils the potential of our Snapture architecture for performance improvements. Thanks to its modular implementation, our framework allows the integration of other multimodal data like facial expressions and head tracking, which are important cues in HRI scenarios, into one architecture. Thus, our work contributes both to gesture recognition research and machine learning applications for non-verbal communication with robots.

Speaker embeddings carry valuable emotion-related information, which makes them a promising resource for enhancing speech emotion recognition (SER), especially with limited labeled data. Traditionally, it has been assumed that emotion information is indirectly embedded within speaker embeddings, leading to their under-utilization. Our study reveals a direct and useful link between emotion and state-of-the-art speaker embeddings in the form of intra-speaker clusters. By conducting a thorough clustering analysis, we demonstrate that emotion information can be readily extracted from speaker embeddings. In order to leverage this information, we introduce a novel contrastive pretraining approach applied to emotion-unlabeled data for speech emotion recognition. The proposed approach involves the sampling of positive and the negative examples based on the intra-speaker clusters of speaker embeddings. The proposed strategy, which leverages extensive emotion-unlabeled data, leads to a significant improvement in SER performance, whether employed as a standalone pretraining task or integrated into a multi-task pretraining setting.

Generative models for network time series (also known as dynamic graphs) have tremendous potential in fields such as epidemiology, biology and economics, where complex graph-based dynamics are core objects of study. Designing flexible and scalable generative models is a very challenging task due to the high dimensionality of the data, as well as the need to represent temporal dependencies and marginal network structure. Here we introduce DAMNETS, a scalable deep generative model for network time series. DAMNETS outperforms competing methods on all of our measures of sample quality, over both real and synthetic data sets.

We consider the problem of learning classification trees that are robust to distribution shifts between training and testing/deployment data. This problem arises frequently in high stakes settings such as public health and social work where data is often collected using self-reported surveys which are highly sensitive to e.g., the framing of the questions, the time when and place where the survey is conducted, and the level of comfort the interviewee has in sharing information with the interviewer. We propose a method for learning optimal robust classification trees based on mixed-integer robust optimization technology. In particular, we demonstrate that the problem of learning an optimal robust tree can be cast as a single-stage mixed-integer robust optimization problem with a highly nonlinear and discontinuous objective. We reformulate this problem equivalently as a two-stage linear robust optimization problem for which we devise a tailored solution procedure based on constraint generation. We evaluate the performance of our approach on numerous publicly available datasets, and compare the performance to a regularized, non-robust optimal tree. We show an increase of up to 12.48% in worst-case accuracy and of up to 4.85% in average-case accuracy across several datasets and distribution shifts from using our robust solution in comparison to the non-robust one.

We propose a novel surrogate modelling approach to efficiently and accurately approximate the response of complex dynamical systems driven by time-varying exogenous excitations over extended time periods. Our approach, namely manifold nonlinear autoregressive modelling with exogenous input (mNARX), involves constructing a problem-specific exogenous input manifold that is optimal for constructing autoregressive surrogates. The manifold, which forms the core of mNARX, is constructed incrementally by incorporating the physics of the system, as well as prior expert- and domain- knowledge. Because mNARX decomposes the full problem into a series of smaller sub-problems, each with a lower complexity than the original, it scales well with the complexity of the problem, both in terms of training and evaluation costs of the final surrogate. Furthermore, mNARX synergizes well with traditional dimensionality reduction techniques, making it highly suitable for modelling dynamical systems with high-dimensional exogenous inputs, a class of problems that is typically challenging to solve. Since domain knowledge is particularly abundant in physical systems, such as those found in civil and mechanical engineering, mNARX is well suited for these applications. We demonstrate that mNARX outperforms traditional autoregressive surrogates in predicting the response of a classical coupled spring-mass system excited by a one-dimensional random excitation. Additionally, we show that mNARX is well suited for emulating very high-dimensional time- and state-dependent systems, even when affected by active controllers, by surrogating the dynamics of a realistic aero-servo-elastic onshore wind turbine simulator. In general, our results demonstrate that mNARX offers promising prospects for modelling complex dynamical systems, in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the weights determined by its coverage probability. We provide a concise mathematical proof of the method, show how it can be extended to derive PIs for parametrised functions and discuss its effectiveness when training deep neural networks. The presented tests of the method on a real-world forecasting task using a neural network-based model show that it can produce reliable PIs in complex machine learning scenarios.

Stopwords are fundamental in Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques for information retrieval. One of the common tasks in preprocessing of text data is the removal of stopwords. Currently, while high-resource languages like English benefit from the availability of several stopwords, low-resource languages, such as those found in the African continent, have none that are standardized and available for use in NLP packages. Stopwords in the context of African languages are understudied and can reveal information about the crossover between languages. The African Stopwords project aims to study and curate stopwords for African languages. When analysing text data and building various NLP models, stopwords might not add much value to the meaning of the document (Singh, 2019) depending on the NLP task (like text classification).

Online stores and service providers rely heavily on recommendation softwares to guide users through the vast amount of available products. Consequently, the field of recommender systems has attracted increased attention from the industry and academia alike, but despite this joint effort, the field still faces several challenges. For instance, most existing work models the recommendation problem as a matrix completion problem to predict the user preference for an item. This abstraction prevents the system from utilizing the rich information from the ordered sequence of user actions logged in online sessions. To address this limitation, researchers have recently developed a promising new breed of algorithms called sequence-aware recommender systems to predict the user's next action by utilizing the time series composed of the sequence of actions in an ongoing user session. This paper proposes a novel sequence-aware recommendation approach based on a complex network generated by the hidden metric space model, which combines node similarity and popularity to generate links. We build a network model from data and then use it to predict the user's subsequent actions. The network model provides an additional source of information that improves the accuracy of the recommendations. The proposed method is implemented and tested experimentally on a large dataset. The results prove that the proposed approach performs better than state-of-the-art recommendation methods.